 Download
Adobe Acrobat (PDF) formatted version of
Charter Boat
Ownership - Coping With Hurricanes for printing.
[1.4 MB, 1 6 pages]
Paradise?
 When the idea of boat ownership first popped into my head,
the vision I had of the experience involved happy people
lounging around on deck under a cloudless sky, ice-cold
beverages in
hand, Jimmy Buffett playing through the speakers,
crystal clear waters, and palm-lined crescent beaches of white
sand. Nowhere in the sales brochure did they talk of hurricanes
and the
potential threat they play on my idea of the real Caribbean.
The southern latitudes generally only
come to mind in winter months, when we leave our snow-bound homes in
search of sun, sand, and the Perfect Rummer. The weather is usually
extraordinary,
and that is not by accident - the winter months are the dry
season. In summer and fall, not
many of us need to head south, and are generally unaware of
the often severe weather that results from tropical storms and
hurricanes. We only hear when a major Hurricane forms and threatens the Continental United
States.
For people who own property in
this part of the world, they are very much aware of every
tropical wave, every named storm, every hurricane, and every
cloud that forms during the hurricane season. It seems
that no place is perfect, even paradise.
The Threat
Every year, up to a dozen
named storms form in the lower latitudes. Most of the
time they are a near-miss as they glance off the various
populated islands,
sparing them a whole lot of inconvenience. I cannot count the number of
times I’ve heard “Whew, that was close!” or
“Man,
we
were lucky.”
I’m not one to feel comfortable owning
an expensive piece of property and relying on luck for
its
protection from total destruction.
I would not be the happy
recipient of an e-mail
that read: “Dear Rob, The bad news is that your boat was hit
by a hurricane. The good news is that we found her - she’s in 8 million pieces spread along the coast. Better
come on down and pick her up. Bring a microscope.”
Everybody has seen television
coverage from the center of a hurricane. There’s a whole
lot of wind and rain that usually results in plenty of
property damage. For boats, the wind
and storm surge causes moorings to fail, mooring lines to
chafe  through,
and anchors to drag, bringing boats ashore
PDQ.
The next time you see your boat, it’s either pulverized into
subatomic particles and now a permanent part of the beach, or you find
it in a tree several hundred yards inland. Even if you
have the best mooring protection, there is always the risk
that a neighbor does not, breaking free and taking both of you into
the trees.
This sobering thought makes
you realize that you have a substantial investment that is
potentially sitting in harm’s way. Depending on where
your boat is, you may have a high or low risk of falling
victim. The risk is not zero. The results are not
pretty.
Hurricanes 101
The official hurricane season
is June 1 through November 30. Conditions for forming a
hurricane generally do not exist outside this window.
During June and July, they rarely form, and when they do, they
are primarily in the Gulf of Mexico, so it’s not a worry for
my boat in St. Vincent. During August and September,
they form off the coast of Africa and travel west across
the Atlantic and terrorize the Windward and Leeward
Islands before making landfall in the southern USA. This
is the period that represents the greatest threat to my
interests. Once October rolls around, hurricanes usually
form in
the western Caribbean Sea and head west, so these months are
less a concern. However, every million years or so,
or unless my personal assets are involved, the impossible happens
and a storm that forms in the Caribbean heads east - as Hurricane Lenny did in November 1999.
Hurricane Michelle this year was another late season hurricane
that began in the Caribbean and wreaked havoc in Jamaica,
Cuba, and the Bahamas. Even as I write this, extremely
late season Hurricane Olga is raising hell in the sub-tropics,
and will most certainly be looking for every opportunity to
really piss me off.
Storms that threaten the
Windward Islands actually begin life in the Sahel Region of
western Africa in the form of moisture that gets dumped into
the far eastern corner of the Atlantic, just south of the Cape
Verde Islands. This moisture bands together to form what
is called a Tropical Wave, which is essentially a trough of
low pressure that is aligned north/south. One forms
about every 5 days off the coast of Africa, and makes its way west
across the Atlantic with the Trade Winds. It is not unusual
to see several of them lined up in the Atlantic and
Caribbean, as shown in the following Surface
Analysis Chart.
Click on the image above
for full-size
When the Tropical Wave (in
reality, large body of moist air containing numerous
thunderstorms) passes over water temperature that is warmer
than 26.5 degrees Celsius (to a depth of 150 feet), shit
starts happening. Warm, moist air from the ocean
surface begins to rise rapidly, its water vapor condenses to
form storm clouds and droplets of rain. The condensation
releases heat that warms the cool air aloft, thereby causing
it to rise. This rising air is replaced by more warm, humid
air from the ocean below. This cycle, called convection,
continues, creating a pattern of wind that circulates around a
center. The first evidence of significant convection is
seen on the Surface Analysis Chart as an area of low pressure,
usually in the 1010 MB range.
If a number of conditions are right, that low pressure area
and convection continues to feed on itself and grow.
The air that rises flows outward at very high altitudes, falls
back to the surface, then gets sucked back in towards the
centre to take the place of the air that rises as a result of
convection. Once such “closed circulation” has
been established, the National Hurricane Center declares the
disturbance a Tropical Depression, and assigns a number to it.
If conditions continue to be favorable, the whole thing
takes on a life of its own. It continues to grow, and when
surface winds exceed 34 knots, it is assigned a name and
declared a Tropical Storm. The storm has a defined
center, and tracks west northwest at about 15 mph, usually on a
compass heading of about 280 degrees.
Under more favorable
conditions, the beast continues to grow larger, resulting in increased winds, until it is
declared a Hurricane at the 64 knot mark. From here, it’s then a matter of just how bad
“bad” gets.
The Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Scale was developed to categorize Hurricane strengths,
from Category 1 through 5, to provide an accurate
understanding of how much wind it takes to cause various
levels of damage to mobile homes and trailer parks.
The Hurricane continues to track as it did before, only now
an open “eye” forms in the center, which is quite unusual
in that there are no clouds or high winds inside it.
The winds circulate around the storm towards the center before rising into the upper atmosphere
at the eyewall. It is the coriolis effect caused by the
earth spinning that deflects this inward flow of air slightly
counter-clockwise, creating the visual cloud impression you
see on the satellite photos.
All this wind on the waters around the hurricane causes
waves. Big waves. When these waves approach the shallow water of a
coastline, they become what is know as Storm Surge. If
you happen to have property along shore, or a boat anchored in
unprotected shallow water, the power unleashed by these waves
is quite unbelievable. Storm Surge has been known to
cause every bit as much property damage as wind and rain.
Hurricanes generally move
along at about 15 miles per hour. Despite what the
satellite photo shows, the real bad part of the storm is
contained to an area near the eye, maybe ninety to one hundred
twenty miles
across. Consequently, a direct hit with very serious
hurricane effects will usually be over in 6 - 9 hours.
If the hurricane passes over
land or colder water, its source of energy is interrupted, and
it begins to die quickly.
Storms that originate off the
African coast are referred to
as classic Cape Verde Hurricanes because of their origin,
and these are the type that threaten interests in the Lesser
Antilles (Windward and Leeward Islands). For the most part, Cape Verde Hurricanes
glance off the northern Leeward Islands and generally do not
threaten interests in the Windward Islands, as shown in the
following Tracking
Chart, taken from the 1998 hurricane
season.
Click on the image above for full-size
The How
Stuff Works website has an excellent description of How
Hurricanes Work, as well as a graphical
animation that shows how hurricanes form, in case you
really want to get into the details.
The Reality
When I selected a location to keep my boat, the threat of
hurricanes was on my mind. I did not want to be in a place
where I would be kept up all night worrying. I wanted a
place that had sufficiently low probability, that I could
trick myself into not worrying.
I conducted some research and
concluded that St. Vincent was such a
place. I was assured by the charter company that the probabilities were
very low; in fact the
last hurricane that hit St. Vincent actually wiped out the
dinosaurs. If you look at the hurricane Tracking Chart
above, you will see that they usually track well north. If you
look at the charts over several years, you will see the same pattern.
From time to time, storms actually do pass
through the St. Vincent region, however they have yet to be
any more powerful than a Tropical Storm, which is really no
big deal. Often, they pass over Barbados first,
weakening slightly over land, before proceeding over St.
Vincent.
As stated earlier, the really
intense wind of hurricanes occurs only near the center, not
across the entire storm area, despite what it looks like on
satellite. The further away from center you get, the more
the wind diminishes. The Hurricane Warnings post a “wind profile,” which shows you how far away from
the center of the storm various wind speeds extend. They
show how many miles to the northeast, northwest, southwest,
and southeast quadrants the 34 knot, 50 knot, and 64 knot
winds extend. You can see from this that the real nasty wind
velocity drops off quite quickly, in fact, you can be as close
as 60 miles from the eye and not experience the same
devastating winds. What this really means is
that you really have to experience a direct hit to suffer
major losses due to high winds. A
glancing blow is not that serious, further decreasing your
risks of total loss.
The Watch
Anybody with a vested interest in the Caribbean
maintains a bookmark on their web browser that points to the National Hurricane
Center. Take a walk through the office, and you will
be surprised - somebody will likely have that web page up
on their computer screen, and check it routinely during
hurricane season. It includes people who own vacation
property in Florida, SCUBA diving enthusiasts, and of course
Caribbean charter boat owners. When I see such a screen
on display, I look at the person and say “What, you
too?!?” and they instantly know exactly what I mean.
The watch starts in April of
every year when Dr. Gray of Colorado State University, a renowned
expert in Hurricane prediction modeling, issues his Atlantic
Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast. This report
predicts hurricane activity for the year, giving you
some idea of the number of sleepless nights you can expect to
have over the coming season. The forecast is adjusted
twice throughout the active season.
Most of it is virtually
incomprehensible, as he talks about the relationship between
El Niño and El Presidente, the Sea Surface Temperature
Anomoly (SSTA), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and of course the
temperature of the asphalt in downtown Phoenix. The important
statistic is the number of Named Storms (Andrew, Bertha, Hugo,
Marilyn, etc.), the
number of Named Storm Days (i.e. the number
of days you will be checking the Hurricane Website every three
hours), and the number of Intense Hurricane Days (the number
of totally sleepless nights you will experience).
It actually does not matter
what the prediction says, because you automatically go through
a strong denial phase. “Ahhh, it
won’t happen to
me.” Dr. Gray could predict that there is a 99.9% chance
of being totally wiped out, and your thoughts will be on that .1%
chance of squeaking through.
I usually check the National Hurricane Website once every
few days in June. Come July, I start checking
it daily. Once hurricane season is in full swing in August and September, I check
twice a day (coincidental with the 8 AM and 2 PM releases of
the Atlantic
Tropical Weather Discussion).
I look at the Discussion and try to determine what is going
on. For the most part, you should see several Tropical
Waves lined up across the Atlantic, about 5 days apart.
These are generally harmless, and as long as they remain
Tropical Waves, I am happy. It is when they form a broad
area
of low pressure that I begin to take notice.
When a low pressure area in
the range of 1010 MB forms, I start looking at the details of
the Discussion. Based
on the current location, sea surface temperatures ahead, and
the upper
level winds, I can gain some idea if I should continue to
monitor its progress. If the conditions are right, this
low
develops into a Tropical Depression, and my level of concern
goes up proportionally. If it develops into a
Tropical Storm, depending on its location, I start watching
very closely.
If it forms in the far
eastern extremities of the Atlantic, it will most likely
drift west at a bearing of 280 degrees, meaning it will
cross the Atlantic and either head north of the Leeward
Islands, or scare the crap out of the people in St. Martin.
Sometimes it forms far enough south, and with a ridge of high
pressure in the sub-tropical latitudes preventing it from
escaping north, it threatens the Windward Islands. Then I
REALLY get concerned..
On rare occasions, the damn
thing stubbornly refuses to
head north at all. However, if it tracks far enough south,
it does not seem to be able to organize itself in a manner
that enables it to grow into a really fierce storm. I
have speculated that this is because the coriolis effect near
the equator is not sufficient for it to develop well
in all quadrants. In fact, it seems to just fall apart
if it tracks too far south. As a result, my experience
with four such disturbances had them cross St. Vincent as weak
Tropical Storms, and not serious Category 3 or 4 Hurricanes.
If the storm does happen to
threaten St. Vincent, I
receive an
e-mail from Barefoot Yacht Charters informing me that it is approaching, and that
Barefoot is taking the necessary precautions. All boats are stripped of sails and bimini and
placed on a hurricane mooring with special bridles built to survive a moderate hurricane..
Then I wait and watch.
The National Hurricane Center
website posts Hurricane and Tropical Storm updates every
three hours, so I can find out quite quickly when it
has
passed. I have included a sample from Tropical
Storm Jerry Advisory 7 online as an example. Note
that my boat in the Blue Lagoon is at 13.1N 61.1W.
There is also an online bulletin board called
the Caribbean
Hurricane Network that contains observations from
residents of the Caribbean islands. It is most
informative if you want first-hand reports of what is actually
happening.
The whole thing is usually over in six hours or so.
I follow up with
Barefoot to confirm that the storm passed without incident.
To date, all of the storms that have threatened my interests
in St.
Vincent have been a bust.
This Year
Dr. Gray predicted that 2001 would be slightly above
average. Given that the two previous years were way
above average and I still avoided a major catastrophe, I considered
this great news. He forecasted 10 named storms (average
is 9.3), with 6 hurricanes (average is 5.8), 2 of those would
develop into intense hurricanes (average is 2.2). It’s a numbers
game - the lower the number, the better.
As of late November, 2001 has been a quiet, but unusual
year. There have been no major Cape Verde hurricanes
that form in the eastern Atlantic, fester over several days,
then flatten St. Martin before terrorizing
Florida or South Carolina. Seven of the nine hurricanes
that formed were not very large, not very intense, and did not even approach land.
Michelle formed in the Caribbean late in the season, flooded
Honduras for a few days before beating the tar out of the
south coast of Jamaica, causing death and destruction in
Cuba, frightening the daylights out of southern Florida, then
speeding across the Bahamas. Iris was very small
and caused a bit of trouble in Belize. That’s
it. We were lucky in
St. Vincent - Ooops, there, I said the “L” word.
Surprisingly, Chantal, Iris, and Jerry tracked
south as a result of a pesky subtropical ridge of high
pressure that parked itself over the Atlantic ocean for the
whole season. These three Tropical Storms passed right
over the keel of my boat as it sat on a mooring in the Blue
Lagoon. As expected, there was very little wind, a lot of
rain, as the storms seemed to collapse on themselves as they
approached St. Vincent.
Coping
As I have been told hundreds of
times, St. Vincent is far enough south that the risk of serious
damage to my boat is very low. My experience watching the
weather over the past three years continues to confirm
this. While several storms have passed over St. Vincent in
the past two years, they have all been a bust. So why do I
still concern myself? Because the risk is not zero.
Maybe a little entertainment.
I am certain that Barefoot’s facilities and the protection of the Blue Lagoon
could easily withstand a Category 1 Hurricane without
incident. Every Barefoot charter boat is tied using two
hurricane bridles to a hurricane mooring that is screwed 16 foot
into the bottom. The reef surrounding Blue Lagoon proved
during Hurricane Lenny that it can protect boats moored inside
from large storm surge. While Barefoot could run the boats to
Grenada or South America to get out of the way of a real big
storm, I don’t really believe it will ever come to
this.
The
single most important fact that enables me to cope with the risk
is this - my boat is fully insured against total loss from
hurricanes.
Period. If my boat was ever totally destroyed in a
hurricane, I’m out the $1,000
insurance deductible and some inconvenience, that’s it.
That’s why I have insurance.
I have also learned over the
course of owning a Caribbean charter boat the art of putting the
whole thing out of my mind. I am confident in Barefoot’s
ability as charter boat professionals to take proper care of my
property. I know things will happen and they will take
care of them. If I am not able to accept this, then I
should not own a boat - it’s as
simple as that.
So, despite the fact that I go
through the annual Hurricane Watch, I understand that there is
absolutely nothing I can do about it. I am in one of the
safest possible locations in the entire Caribbean with a charter
company that has excellent hurricane protection. Most
important, I’m fully insured.
* * *
Download
Adobe Acrobat (PDF) formatted version of
Charter Boat
Ownership - Coping With Hurricanes for printing.
[1.4 MB, 16 pages]
|
