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Threat, What Threat?
A few years ago, I wrote an
article (Coping
With Hurricanes) that described how I, as a boat owner,
cope with the threat of hurricanes. I discussed the
whole process, and despite all the possibilities of a threat,
pretty much dismissed the reality of it affecting
me. Four years of watching hurricanes in the Caribbean
lead me to believe that such storms could not form as far
south as St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
Well, 2004 was the year that
defined a whole new reality.
Rob Meet TD #9
On Wednesday morning,
September 1, 2004, while performing my routine review of the
National Hurricane Center’s Atlantic Tropical Weather
Discussion, I noticed a very large cloud formation and low
pressure area that had been expunged from the west coast of
Africa and into the Atlantic. It was huge. There was enough moisture and energy in
that formation to cause some serious damage, however I was
pretty certain that whatever formed would dissipate because it
was so far south (9 degrees N, at 21 degrees west).
Twenty four hours later, the
National Hurricane Center declared the formation of Tropical
Depression #9. With that, the games began.
The Birth of a Monster
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2004
...IVAN FORMS OVER FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...NINTH NAMED STORM OF
THE 2004 SEASON...
The center was uncomfortably far south, 10 degrees N, 1800
miles east of the Windward Islands, but with an initial track of 275 degrees, it would pass to the
north of my interests.
I was coping quite well so far.
Turn, Turn, Turn!!!
For three days, I watched as
each new Bulletin explained that a ridge of high pressure over
the Atlantic prevented the storm from turning to the
north. Each new Bulletin declared that it would turn
north, “any time now.” One Bulletin had it
passing over Martinique, well to the north. A later Bulletin
had it over the north tip of St. Lucia. A little closer,
but nothing to worry about. A later track was over the
south tip of St. Lucia. This storm now had my full
attention.
Ivan had also grown quickly
into a major Category 3 hurricane. The Tropical Prediction
Center was amazed that such a powerful storm could form at
such a low latitude. They were using such phrases as “never in recorded history”, and
“wow, this is
amazing.” Why was I not impressed?
When Bulletin #16 predicted it
would pass over the middle of St. Vincent, I became “very” concerned. I contacted Barefoot
Yacht Charters to find out their plans for the
fleet. I was advised that they decided to leave the
fleet on Barefoot’s hurricane moorings, rather than risk
moving it to an anchorage they had less control over, relying
solely on anchors. We knew from 2002 (Tropical Storm
Lili) that the hurricane moorings could easily withstand
Category 1 conditions. Given that winds drop off
significantly from the eye of the storm, we were counting on
a near-miss, riding it out on reliable equipment. A
sound plan.
I was still coping.
Direct Hit Predicted
I saved this from the Tropical
Prediction Center Hurricane Ivan Discussion #18 so I could laugh
about it later. I saw no humor in it at the time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX
WINDS
INITIAL 06/2100Z 11.6N 55.3W 90 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 12.3N 58.1W 100 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 13.2N 61.5W 105 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 14.0N 64.4W 110 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 15.0N 67.4W 115 KT
[Click on diagram for
full size image]
www.stormcarib.com
has a tool that calculates how close the eye will pass to a
specific point. That tool predicted the eye of Category 3
Hurricane Ivan would pass .6 miles to the north of my
boat in 20 hours. There was no way Suspects would survive a
direct hit. This was going to leave a mark. I was suddenly not coping very well.
I began to wonder why Ivan was NOT turning north. A quick look at the weather
chart revealed the answer. A huge ridge of high pressure
over the lower North Atlantic, extending pretty much from
Africa all he way back to Louisiana, was keeping Ivan from
turning north.
Why then, after 18 successive
Bulletins failed to deliver on a more northerly path, coupled
with a SOLID ridge of high pressure, would the Tropical
Prediction Center think it would do that anything
different?
Computer models.
Don’t Turn, Don’t Turn,
Don’t
Turn . . . Please!
I sent the following note off
to Barefoot.
“I agree that moving
the boats south is not the way to go. The most recent
forecast has the NPA at 13.2N 60.7W which is a few miles
north of you - the worst possible scenario. However, the
ridge that keeps adjusting the forecast more south appears
stronger, and my gut feel on this is that the storm won’t
go north at all. I think it will end up right over
Grenada, and not intensify as they say. We’ve seen
this before, but then again, I’m no expert.”
Now I didn’t want it to turn
north at all. I wanted as much distance between my boat
and Ivan as possible. I was not optimistic, given my
past cavalier
attitude towards hurricanes in the Grenadines. I was
certain I was going to be punished heavily for being so smug
all these years. I went to sleep that night hoping
for a break.
I awoke at 2:30am and checked
the forecast. No change. I quickly sent off
another note to Barefoot:
“My insurance
covers hurricanes, right?”
Coping? No way. I
was falling apart.
No, This Is Not Just A Dream
I was up very early the next
morning to check the forecast. The strangest thing had
happened. Overnight, Ivan had inexplicably subsided a
little and taken a hitch southward. Yes,
southward. The new forecast had Ivan tracking through
Grenada, 75 miles to the south. Ha! I had predicted
that!
[Click on diagram for
full size image]
Since hurricane force
winds were to extend out 70 miles, we would only experience
tropical storm force, and the equipment had lived through that
before. I could not believe this.
I was somewhat relieved that The Usual Suspects would live, live
to probably face another hurricane sometime in the future.
Communications with Barefoot
pretty much tapered off to zero at this point. The boats were prepared, and
staff had gone home to fend for themselves and their
families. I was advised that we were not out of the woods
yet, as St, Vincent was still in the northern quadrant of the
storm, the most deadly, and anything could
still happen. I spent the day checking correspondent
reports on www.stormcarib.com.
I describe this as the “pins and needles” method of
coping. I really thought my number was up.
The storm went through that
afternoon and
communications from the islands dropped off to near-zero. A few managed to keep their computer equipment
running on UPS, and provided updates. I actually learned that The
Usual Suspects was OK indirectly through one such
update. One correspondent went out for a
drive near the Blue Lagoon and spoke with a security guard
at one of the charter companies, who reported that he had nothing
to report. I quickly figured out it was the guard at Barefoot, and his lack of excitement meant the fleet was safe.
I was suddenly coping with this whole thing a little better.
It was only next morning when
I received an official note from Barefoot confirming that the
fleet had survived completely intact.
It’s a Nightmare
At the same time I experienced
my personal wave of relief, reports on www.stormcarib.com
were beginning to trickle
in, describing the devastation experienced by Grenada. I
could not believe the vocabulary people were using. Words such
as trashed, leveled, totaled, destroyed were used extensively
in those reports. I suddenly felt real bad that I
had, up until then, only thought of my own interests. The
bigger picture was horrifying.
No electricity. No
water. No communications. 90% of the roofs in St.
Georges blown off. Stone structures collapsed. Trees
down everywhere, and in some cases, totally denuded. The
nutmeg crop destroyed. Airport damaged and
closed. Power lines down everywhere. Roads
inaccessible. Debris everywhere. The Prime
Minister’s home leveled.
Emergency Operation Centre leveled. The prison lost
its roof and 400 inmates were at large. Looting of stores
was rampant. 85 boats at Spice Island Marine toppled
over. Hundreds more boats aground or sunk, as the entire
Caribbean long-term cruising fleet was holed up there.
Aerial view of Spice
Island Marine - Internet photo - origin unknown
But wait, there’s more.
Ivan picked up steam as it
departed Grenada, becoming a full Category 5 hurricane.
It scared the crap out of the ABC islands, who have never had
to learn to spell hurricane, let alone experience one.
It then threatened a direct hit on Kingston Jamaica as an
extremely dangerous hurricane for several days before, get
this, miraculously taking an unexpected hitch to the southwest
for no obvious reason. Prayers, people concluded, were
the reason Jamaica was spared. But was it? Tell
that to the people of Portland Cottage who lost their homes and
several lives to storm surge flooding.
Then there was the low-lying Cayman
Islands. Storm surge completely crossed the island of
Grand Cayman, flooding every single home, severely damaging
well-constructed property that somehow managed to survive the direct hit of 155 mile per hour winds.
Western Cuba was spared as the monster deked left, before
setting its sights on the mother lode - the Florida
panhandle. At least Ivan had the courtesy to spare the
people devastated by Charley and Frances. Fortunately,
it weakened before making landfall..
Flooding from rainfall caused
billions in damage to the southern States before the storm
headed up
the eastern seaboard. One would have expected that Ivan’s energy would have been spend by then but no, it somehow
managed to claim the life of a sailor in Connecticut. Ivan hung
on long after the press got tired of it, and wreaked havoc on
eastern Canada and Newfoundland, killing two more fishermen
there. The National Hurricane Center issued its last Bulletin
on September 17, finally declaring the demise of this vicious
beast.
You Just Won’t Believe This
Five days after declaring Ivan dead,
remnants of the storm that detached itself from the main part
festered on the eastern seaboard before making its way back to the Gulf of Mexico.
There, it re-intensified. The Tropical Prediction Center debated at length, but finally declared
that Tropical Depression Ivan, and later Tropical Storm Ivan,
had returned to the coast of Texas. It did, but fortunately
did not have enough energy left to take any more lives or
cause much damage.
The Aftermath
The situation in Grenada was,
and still is, grim. The damage to the infrastructure
was so complete that the basic essentials required to sustain
life was compromised. The total lack of communications made it nearly
impossible to assess priorities and direct relief efforts.
Impassible roads made it impossible for repair crews to be
dispatched where needed, and for relief supplies to be
delivered.
What’s left of St.
Georges - Internet photo - origin unknown
An overwhelming number of
people suffered extreme damage to their homes, placing a huge
demand on already scarce building supplies. Without electricity,
refrigerated foods quickly spoiled in the sweltering heat,
placing a heavy demand on the remaining food reserves.
Faced with the obvious complexities of delivering food to a
remote island, there was
looting of grocery stores and relief supplies as people panicked
over the possibility of starvation. When you see honest
people resorting to looting, that is the sign of exactly how
desperate the situation is. Convicts from the prison
roamed the streets for several days before being recaptured.
Without running water or
sewage facilities, residents continue to face serious gastrointestinal
illnesses as a result of e-coli. Without roofs, it will not be
possible for people to refill their cisterns during the rainy
season, so water shortages in April of next year are imminent.
Panorama of the damage -
Internet photo - origin unknown
[Click on photo for full size image]
Businesses have been totally
destroyed. A vast majority of sole proprietors operated
on a narrow cash basis, and certainly do not have cash reserves
to reconstruct their facilities. Insurance, what
insurance? For them, the nightmare is just beginning, as
there will be no way to earn an income in the coming months.
I almost forgot - the
boats. They seem so insignificant now. Looking at
the photos, the cruising fleet of some 600 boats was
substantially damaged, run aground, or sunk. Without
question, insurance costs for boats in the Caribbean will soar
over the next few years to cover this. Expect some of these
costs to be passed on to charter guests.
More damage - Internet
photo - origin unknown
The loss of boats will affect
businesses throughout the entire region for a long time to
come. One boat, yes one, was reported in the Tobago Cays
over the past weekend. Project this lack of
market potential to businesses operated by the Boat
Vendors, local shops, supermarkets, chandleries, and
restaurants. They will struggle over the next year.
What Can We Do?
We can and should help.
We drop in on this little paradise from time to time. If
we want it to be there the next time, we need to
help. They do not have the resources to recover from
this disaster on their own. We do.
In the short term, the relief
organizations need money. It is the most transportable,
most flexible form of aid, and one form that YOU can provide,
right now. Please go to the Caribbean Disaster
Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) website to find
out how you can help:
http://www.cdera.org
In the longer term, there is a tendency for visitors to
stay away from places that have been damaged. Why go spend
your hard-earned vacation dollars in a place that isn’t quite
a perfect paradise? Because the quickest way to return
it to that state is to restore the economy to a state of
prosperity.
It won’t be as bad as you think.
There is a full-time disaster-relief team working on this
round the clock. Their progress is reported daily on www.stormcarib.com.
Much of the debris
that littered the island has already been cleaned up, or will
be cleaned up soon.
Vegetation that was destroyed will grow back within a few weeks -
it is a rainforest island! Displaced beach sand will quickly
finds its way back. Resort hotels and restaurants that
were partially damaged are quickly being repaired.
Infrastructure will be back online within a month. The
sun is still hot and the trade winds are still
refreshing. The beer has been restored to its normal
cold state.
If you were planning to vacation in Grenada this
season, do not cancel your plans. They will be
able to accommodate you. It might not be perfect, but it
will be interesting.
Coping
My coping with hurricanes is a
drop in the bucket compared to what the local residents face.
My view of what it means has changed
significantly as a result of what happened this year. I
will never look at it quite the same way any more.
Instead, I will cling to my
insurance policy, cross my fingers, and pray for the good
people who really have to cope with hurricanes.
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