TROPICAL STORM JERRY
Public Advisory
000
WTNT32 KNHC 080600
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM AST MON OCT 08 2001
...JERRY MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT AND
THE GRENADINE ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT ST. LUCIA LATER TODAY.
AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...WEST OF ST. VINCENT.
JERRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY LARGER AMOUNTS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS JERRY PASSES THROUGH
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...13.3 N... 60.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM
JERRY
Discussion
000
WTNT42 KNHC 080258
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 07 2001
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON DATA AND NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT A LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS RE-DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. THE PREVIOUS
INTENSITY
OF 45 KT IS MAINTAINED BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 KT...T3.5...FROM TAFB AND 35 KT...T2.5...FROM SAB.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE EAST AND POOR ELSEWHERE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290/12... BASED ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT JERRY WILL RESUME A BASE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.
DURING PAST 6 HOURS...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS REFORMED ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS YIELDED A TRANSLATIONAL
MOTION OF 320/12. HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SUGGEST THAT JERRY MAY
ALREADY HAVE RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AS INDICATED BY 5900 METER HEIGHTS
AT SAN JUAN...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT JERRY COULD MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST
MOTION FOR MUCH LONGER. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. THE AVN IS THE NORTHERNMOST MODEL AND BRINGS
THE CYCLONE ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...WHILE THE
SOUTHERNMOST MODELS ARE THE GFDN AND THE GFDL WHICH TAKE JERRY
RAPIDLY WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IN 72 HOURS. THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS MODELS HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUE TO TAKE
JERRY TOWARD JAMAICA IN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY
SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO A
UKMET-NOGAPS-DEEP BAM CONSENSUS FOR THE FORWARD SPEED.
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS...ABOVE 200 MB...HAVE BEEN DISRUPTING THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST BY ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME EASTERLY IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
FAVOR MORE INTENSIFICATION. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BRING JERRY
UP TO 72 KT AND 76 KT IN 72 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE UNTIL A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND A PERISTENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0300Z 13.3N
60.6W 45 KTS
12HR VT 08/1200Z 14.0N
62.7W 50 KTS
24HR VT 09/0000Z 14.8N
65.1W 55 KTS
36HR VT 09/1200Z 15.5N
67.5W 60 KTS
48HR VT 10/0000Z 16.2N
69.8W 65 KTS
72HR VT 11/0000Z 17.5N
74.0W 70 KTS
TROPICAL STORM JERRY
Probabilities
000
WTNT72 KNHC 080229
SPFAT2
TROPICAL STORM JERRY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN OCT 07 2001
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST WED OCT 10 2001
LOCATION
A B C D E
LOCATION
A B C D E
14.8N
65.1W
51 X X X 51 MDCB
176N 714W X 1 18 6 25
15.5N
67.5W
7 29 X X 36 MTPP
186N 724W X X 10 13 23
16.2N
69.8W
X 13 15 1 29 MTCA
183N 738W X X 3 18 21
SKPG
125N 717W X X 3 5
8 MKJP
179N 768W X X X 13 13
TNCC
122N 690W X 3 6 1
10 MKJS
185N 779W X X X 9 9
TGPY
120N 618W 15 X X X 15 MUGM
200N 751W X X X 17 17
TBPB
131N 595W 99 X X X 99 MUCM
214N 779W X X X 8 8
TVSV
131N 612W 99 X X X 99 MUCF
221N 805W X X X 2 2
TLPL
138N 610W 99 X X X
99 TJSJ
184N 661W 1 15
1 X 17
TFFF
146N 610W 92 X X X
92 MDPP
198N 707W X X 12 6 18
TDPR
153N 614W 63 X X X 63 MBJT
215N 712W X X 2 9 11
TFFR
163N 615W 9 1 X X
10 MYMM
224N 730W X X X 9 9
TAPA
171N 618W 2 X X X
2 MYSM
241N 745W X X X 3 3
TKPK
173N 627W 6 1 X X
7 MYEG
235N 758W X X X 5
5
TNCM
181N 631W 2 1 X X
3 MYAK
241N 776W X X X 2 2
TISX
177N 648W 9 9
X 1 19 ST CROIX
VI
9 9 X 1 19
TIST
183N 650W 3 9
X 1 13 ST THOMAS
VI 3
9 X 1 13
TJPS
180N 666W 1 21 1 X
23 SAN JUAN
PR
1 15 1 X 17
MDSD
185N 697W X 5 17 2
24 PONCE
PR
1 21 1 X 23
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE
C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
